They studied 40,000 couples and found that 94% of breakups stem from this communication error

Experts can now predict divorce with surprising accuracy—sometimes after observing a couple for just a few minutes.

After decades of research, Drs. John and Julie Gottman discovered key patterns in behavior that signal whether a marriage will thrive—or fall apart, Fortune Well noted.

Through their work at The Gottman Institute, the couple has studied more than 40,000 pairs and developed data-based tools to help relationships last.

Their methods are said to predict divorce with 94% accuracy.

But the goal isn’t just to predict the outcome. It’s to help couples make small, powerful shifts that bring lasting love.

‘Bids for connection’ help predict divorce early

One of the strongest signals in a relationship is how often couples respond to what the Gottmans call “bids for connection.”

These bids are small moments—like a glance, a question, or a smile—that show someone wants attention or closeness.

“When a couple turns toward each other, they make and respond to what we call ‘bids for connection.’”

That act of turning toward might seem tiny, but it speaks volumes. It says, “I see you. I care. I want to connect.”

The difference between happy and struggling couples often comes down to these small decisions.

The Gottman Institute found that couples who stayed married turned toward each other 86% of the time.

Those who later divorced only did so 33% of the time.

Over time, missing or ignoring bids can wear away the foundation of a relationship—making it one of the clearest divorce predictors.

How emotional validation strengthens a bond

Psychotherapist Christina Eller, LMHC, works closely with couples and says many relationships crumble not because of significant issues, but because of how people speak to one another during the challenging moments.

“Validating language between two people creates empathy and creates mutual respect,” she said. “And when you have those two things, you’re more inclined to be magnetic towards one another.”

Validation isn’t about fixing problems or offering advice. It’s about showing you’re listening and that your partner’s feelings matter.

Simple phrases like “That must’ve been tough for you” or “I understand why that would upset you” go a long way.

These interactions make marriage advice come alive—not just as tips, but as everyday tools that work.

The Four Horsemen: Hidden divorce predictors to watch for

The Gottman Institute also identified four major behaviors that can predict divorce accurately.

These are the Four Horsemen: criticism, contempt, defensiveness, and stonewalling.

Each of these can quietly damage trust over time.

For example, stonewalling—shutting down or walking away—may seem like avoiding conflict. Still, it’s one of the biggest divorce predictors.

It makes the other person feel invisible and rejected.

To counter these habits, couples are encouraged to practice soft starts in conversations, take responsibility when possible, and stay emotionally present.

These small changes aren’t just marriage advice—they’re relationship-saving actions.

The good news? Even if the Four Horsemen show up now and then, couples can work to replace them with healthier patterns, starting with turning toward each other.

Knowing yourself can help predict divorce—and prevent it

While many couples focus on what their partner does or says, self-awareness plays a massive role in emotional connection.

“We need to be able to understand our trigger, our pasts, our childhoods, and how all of these factors can escalate the interactions with our partners,” says Eller.

It’s easy to bring old wounds into current arguments without that insight.

Learning to pause, reflect, and even soothe yourself during stress helps both people stay grounded during conflict.

Self-awareness is one of the most overlooked pieces of marriage advice—but it’s deeply tied to how we speak, listen, and respond under pressure.

And it’s another way to stop divorce predictors before they grow too large.

Vulnerability keeps the connection alive

When couples argue, it’s often tempting to shut down.

But emotional closeness requires something much more challenging—vulnerability.

“If we are not vulnerable, then we are not going to be able to have an emotional connection, not only to our partner but to ourselves,” Eller explains.

Letting your guard down can feel risky. But it’s the doorway to intimacy, trust, and healing.

And for many long-lasting couples, vulnerability becomes the bridge they return to again and again.

Instead of walking away, they circle back. They say, “I was hurt,” or “I miss you,” or “Let’s try again.” These are the quiet moments that rebuild love.

It’s not about perfection—it’s about staying present

No marriage is perfect. Fights will happen, and feelings will get hurt. But relationships don’t end because of struggle. They end when one or both people stop showing up.

The ability to predict divorce can be helpful—but it’s even more powerful when that knowledge is used to strengthen the bond.

That’s the heart of what John and Julie Gottman’s research teaches us: Love isn’t grand gestures. It’s small moments.

It’s the choice to lean in, respond, validate, and keep learning about yourself and your partner.

Because when couples keep turning toward one another, they don’t just avoid divorce—they build something deep, lasting, and real.

Here’s Drs. John and Julie Gottman talking about how they predict divorce—don’t miss their powerful insights in this short video: